Former Vice President Joe Biden at the kickoff rally for his 2020 Presidential campaign. Photo Credit: Wikimedia Commons
Former Vice President Joe Biden has seen a significant increase in his polling numbers over President Donald Trump in the last few weeks. Since Oct. 1, Biden has gained a 9-point lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average, an aggregate of recent national polls taken by pollsters and assembled by realclearpolitics.com.
Over half of polls taken in October have Biden leading Trump by 10 points or more. Most polls have a margin of error around three percent.
Two recent events are credited with contributing to Trump’s dwindling poll numbers: the presidential debate on Sept. 29 and Trump testing positive for COVID-19 on Oct. 2.
“The administration’s response to the president getting COVID was not what the public was looking for, for the most part. I’m sure his base supporters weren’t that bothered by it, but clearly something about it was off key to a lot of people out there in the public,” Jason Lindsay, a Political Science Professor at SCSU, said. “So what’s interesting is we’ll see if it’s a momentary surge for Biden in the aftermath of that, or if those polls show kind of a new direction in the race in the final deadline here.”
Throughout the election cycle, Biden’s national polling lead has been higher than Hillary Clintons was in 2016, beating out Clinton’s polling lead on Oct. 13 by 3 points.
“In 2016, he ran the better campaign, as calling your opponents voters ‘deplorables’ is just whack,” Carlos Camejo, the President of SCSU’s College Democrats, said. “This time around, the damage is done and Biden is +14 because people want a return to a time when the president was competent. This isn’t 2016, where people were surprised by his victory and almost calling it stolen. Biden is winning in 3 weeks because he’s the superior candidate.”
Biden is also leading decisively in key states that Trump won in 2016, maintaining clear polling leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while also leading by smaller margins in states like Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida.
“He needs to win the electoral college win again,” said Lindsay. “So whatever the national polls say about Biden is one thing, what’s more critical for actually figuring out what happens in the election is to look at the polling in some key states. Ohio, Pennsylvania, some of these other states. If President Trump can’t hold on to some of those states, then he’s in trouble.”
Brendan Janostin is a Mass Communications major with with a focus on Journalism and a minor in Political Science. Currently, he is the news editor of the University Chronicle. He enjoys fighting games, Star Trek, political analysis, and watching bad movies with his friends.